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Sunday, June 26, 2011

Where Do I Think Jose Reyes Will Land?

So where is Jose landing?  Let's take a look at the shortstop landscape around the majors.

There are Six teams with the incumbents either going into free agency or have options for 2012.

Free agency (4) - Braves, Phillies, Astros, Orioles
Club options for 2012 (2) - Pirates, Red Sox

There are Five teams with their shortstops under contract for at least the next two years.

Marlins, Rockies, Yankees, White Sox, Twins

He's not going to the Pirates.  The Astros?  I doubt it.  The Orioles may try to throw money at him, but why would he leave New York for them?  The Red Sox may be maxed out in terms of dollars to spend. Would the Phillies add another big contract?  The Braves may be a dark horse.

Can the Nationals sneak in the race?   The Cubs have Castro so forget them.  The Reds?  Possibly.  Brewers are a shot if they don't go the Fielder route.  Cardinals are saving their money for Pujols.   The Dodgers aren't going to be buyers.  The Giants are a major possibility.  Forget the Padres.  The Rays don't have much committed for next year, but they didn't take a run at Crawford, so forget them.  I don't think Jose's going to Toronto. Tigers?  Peralta's under contract for 2012, but you never know.   Royals and Indians are out.  I don't see anyone in the AL west making a run.

The biggest risk factors for Jose to go besides the Mets lie in their own division.   The Braves, Phillies and Nationals may all make a run at him.   The Giants and Reds may go for him.  In the American League, the only teams I can see making a go would be the Red Sox or the Orioles, but I don't think the American league is likely.

Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but I think the Mets have a shot.  I think it will come down to the Mets, the Giants and the Nationals.  

Incumbent Shortshops

Braves - Alex Gonzalez - free agent - $62MM committed
Marlins - Hanley Ramirez - signed through 2014 - $45MM committed
Phillies - Jimmie Rollins - free agent - $116MM committed
Nationals - Ian Desmond - not arbitration eligible - $44MM committed

Cubs - Starlin Castro - not arbitration eligible - $72MM committed
Reds - Paul Janish - first year arbitration eligible - $52MM committed
Astros - Clint Barmes - free agent - $47MM committed
Brewers - Yuniesky Betancourt - 2012 club option - $57MM committed
Pirates - Ronny Cedeno - 2012 club option - $10MM committed
Cardinals - Ryan Theriot - third year arbitration eligible - $49MM committed

Dodgers - Dee Gordon - not arbitration eligible - $46MM committed
Giants - Brandon Crawford - not arbitration eligible - $73MM committed
Rockies - Troy Tulowitzki - signed through 2020 - $65M committed
Padres - Jason Bartlett - signed through 2012 - $13MM committed
Diamondbacks - Stephen Drew - signed through 2012 - $29MM committed

Yankees - Derek Jeter - signed through 2013 - $153MM committed
Red Sox - Marco Scutaro - 2012 option $101MM committed
Rays - Elliot Johnson - not arbitration eligible - $16MM committed
Orioles - J.J. Hardy - free agent - $36MM committed
Blue Jays - Yunel Escobar - 2nd year of arbitration - $31MM committed

Twins - Tsuyoshi Nishioka - under contract through 2013 - $65MM committed
Tigers - Jhonny Peralta - under contract through 2012 - $73MM committed
White Sox - Alexei Ramirez - under contract through 2015 - $94MM committed
Royals - Alcides Escobar - not arbitration eligible - $11MM committed
Indians - Asdrubal Cabrera - 2nd year of arbitration - $13MM committed

Mariners - Brendan Ryan - under contract through 2012 - $59MM committed
Angels - Erick Aybar - going into 3rd year of arbitration - $80MM committed
Athletics - Cliff Pennington - not arbitration eligible - $17MM committed
Rangers - Elvis Andrus - first year arbitration eligible - $63MM committed

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